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Spies don’t chase fads.
Over the weekend, Nvidia’s (NVDA) board opened an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang over his relationship with a woman reported to be a suspected Chinese spy.
If those reports are accurate, someone working for Beijing got close to the man running the most important AI company on earth.
Wall Street’s answer this morning was to sell Nvidia about 4%. I think it’s reading the wrong headline.
It tells you China sees AI as a race it can’t afford to lose.
Once AI is a national security race, it gets a lot harder to slow it down over the local power and permitting fights that crushed data center stocks after the election.
The market may already sense it. Even with Nvidia down, the Dow was up more than 800 points by mid-morning, and AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), and the rest of the chip stocks rallied hard.
If the AI race with China is real, so is the race for the technology America’s military runs on.
That’s the story Matt McCall is telling live on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
He’s tracked down a technology that came out of the Naval Research Laboratory, and a tiny company worth less than $1 billion that holds the sole right to manufacture it, and he thinks it has a shot at rising 20 times by the end of Trump’s term.
Before then, two tests land tomorrow. October’s consumer price report comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET, and China’s pause on its sweeping rare earth export controls is set to expire the same day.
So, I asked the team what they’re watching this week. Their answers run from a rare earth miner to an oil short.
NATE BEAR | Critical Metals (CRML)
“This is an oversold chart play and I like the name because they have 37% short float which is huge,” Nate said. “Recently completed acquisition opens this up for a quick move back to $10 if this sector gets a little rotation.”
Critical Metals is developing the Tanbreez rare earth project in Greenland. Last week, it closed its acquisition of European Lithium, the partner that held the rest of that project.
A short float of 37% means more than a third of the shares available to trade are held by people betting the stock falls. If it starts to climb, a lot of them have to buy back in to cut their losses, and that buying can push it higher, fast.
China controls most of the world’s rare earth supply, and its pause on those export controls runs out tomorrow. Any headline on that front can put the whole sector in play, and Critical Metals right along with it.
KARIM RAHEMTULLA | United States Oil Fund (USO)
“I’m sticking with my short oil play with the USO short,” Karim told me. “Only thing that will derail oil from going lower is a restart of the war.”
The United States Oil Fund tracks the price of crude oil, so a short position makes money when oil falls. Last week, oil posted its biggest weekly drop since 2022, as the election results raised hopes of a peace deal with Iran. This morning, crude was down another 3%, under $88 a barrel.
Karim’s view is that peace keeps pushing oil lower. The one thing he’s watching for is fighting starting back up, because that would send prices the other way.
BRYAN BOTTARELLI | SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
“GLD has been a great Dark Ticker in the metals sector for us,” Bryan said.
The SPDR Gold Shares fund tracks the price of gold. While tech was getting crushed last week, gold rose about 4.5%, its best week in more than two months.
Tomorrow’s rare earth deadline is only the first test. On November 27, while most of America is hunting Black Friday deals, China’s pause on its gallium, germanium, and antimony restrictions runs out. All three go into the hardware America’s military runs on.
One of those materials sits at the center of Matt McCall’s story. Beijing could tighten its grip again that day. Edison’s old lesson was to make a foreign cartel obsolete rather than try to outproduce it, and that’s exactly what this Navy technology is built to do.
So don’t wait for Black Friday headlines. Matt goes live this Wednesday, November 11, at 2 p.m. ET, to walk through the Navy technology and the tiny company that holds the exclusive worldwide license. He’s also naming one of his picks on air, free to everyone who tunes in.
